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Financial tensions ease for now😎

Posted: 15th March 2023
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Good morning and welcome to episode 805 of ‘Talking Bull’. Here are the latest headlines today,  Financial tensions ease for now, US Inflation data matches expectations, US and German yields recover, Fed expectations settle, Dollar still struggling, China data close to expectations & US retail sales data Wednesday.

 

We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.

We hope you enjoy it!

For a selection of free educational content, join our Discord server at – https://discord.gg/Db4UWVFvF6

Show notes:

Joe was onside 0.47R on EURGBP, Steve was onside 0.08R on Gold.

We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.

We are currently up 202.55% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.

News

Financial tensions ease for now

There was still an important element of caution, but overall financial stresses eased during Tuesday with relief that there were no further banking casualties at this stage.

US Inflation data matches expectations

US consumer prices increased 0.4% for February which was in line with consensus forecasts and the year-on-year rate retreated to 6.0% from 6.4% which was also in line with expectations.

Underlying prices increased 0.5% on the month, slightly above consensus forecasts of 0.4%, although the year-on-year increase matched expectations at 5.5% from 5.6% previously. Used vehicle prices dipped for the seventh successive month with a 13.6% annual decline, but there was a strong increase in shelter prices as well as transport services.

US and German yields recover

Yields dipped briefly at Tuesday’s European open, but there were significant net gains on the day following the he drop seen on Monday.

The US 2-year yield settled around 4.20%.

Fed expectations settle

There were still concerns surrounding core inflation trends, but expectations that the Fed would have to be more cautious given on-going financial-sector concerns.

There was, however, less volatility in Fed Funds futures with markets settling around a 70% chance that rates will be increased by 25 basis points next week with a 30% chance of no change.

Dollar still struggling

The dollar rallied at time during Tuesday, but was unable to hold the gains and the dollar index closed marginally lower on the day.

China data close to expectations

Chinese industrial production and retail sales data was close to expectations with annual growth of 2.4% and 3.5% respectively.

The statistics bureau stated that the economy is showing signs of stabilisation and recovery.

US retail sales data Wednesday

There are important US data releases on Wednesday with the retail sales and producer prices reports as well as the New York Empire manufacturing index.

Retail sales are expected to correct slightly after a surge last month.

Data Today

12.30: UK budget release

12.30: US producer prices

12.30: US retail sales

12.30: US New York Empire survey

14.30: EIA oil inventories report

00.30 (Thurs): Australia labour-market report

Key events over the next week

March 16th: ECB policy decision

Gun to head challenge – Update

 

Today’s trade idea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a great week everyone.

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