Good morning and welcome to episode 392 of ‘Talking Bull’. In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead.
We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.
We hope you enjoy it!
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Joe and Steve were stopped out on Oil and Gold yesterday due to the volatility spike around lunchtime.
We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.
We are currently up 75.74% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.
The Group of Seven summit, being held in Cornwall in the U.K., gets underway fully on Friday. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden met ahead of the event, with Johnson saying Biden didn’t push him on fixing relations with the EU, following tensions over the past week related to Northern Ireland and the Brexit agreement. Elsewhere, leaders are set to confirm plans for extra Covid-19 vaccine doses and there will be plenty of attention on green goals, including climate finance and ambitious plans to accelerate the shift toward electric cars.
The European Central Bank renewed its pledge for faster bond-buying even as policy makers adopted a more optimistic view on the risks facing Europe’s economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank remains sanguine on inflation, though some members are said to have raised the prospect of upside risks. The policy decision coincided with consumer-prices data in the U.S. which topped expectations and fanned worries that inflation could become more established as the economy bounces back.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is poised to delay the final lifting of virus restrictions in the country, due to happen on June 21. Johnson is set to announce next week whether the final curbs will be lifted, but a recent rise in cases in the country is set to force a rethink and deal a blow to hospitality and entertainment businesses. The airline industry, meanwhile, is pushing for a faster restart of U.K.-U.S. travel, calling on leaders to go further than the tentative pledges made this week to resume flights. Carriers also want to overturn EU compensation laws after paying out billions in refunds during lockdowns last year.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are relatively stable heading into Friday, following a series of developments for the market. International banking regulators decided to classify Bitcoin as the riskiest of assets, dragging cryptos further into the mainstream financial world. Elsewhere, the outlook is hazy: JPMorgan sees some bearish signals; cyberattacks demanding ransoms in Bitcoin have dimmed hopes that policy makers are warming to digital assets; and the International Monetary Fund has warned about the challenges posed by El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender.
European stock futures are pointing to a marginally-positive open after a mixed day in Asia. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record in the U.S. There is a smattering of economic data, including U.K. industrial production, while the earnings calendar is quiet. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak speak at an event with the BIS Innovation Hub, while the Bank of Russia gives its rate decision. And the delayed Euro 2020 soccer tournament kicks off, with Italy and Turkey the first game.
Stocks enjoyed strong initial gains in the wake of the US CPI reading yesterday, but some of the initial optimism was trimmed later on in the session.
The dollar also weakened, while gold rose. Asian markets were more mixed, with losses in Japan, but the ASX 200 and the Hang Seng both rose.
The ECB left policy unchanged, and maintained their dovish stance, although with little in the way of additional actions the impact on the market was limited.
Today sees just US Michigan confidence data this afternoon, with UK GDP this morning showing growth of 2.3% month-on-month.
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence index (June, preliminary): previous reading 82.9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Gun to head challenege – Update
Today’s trade idea
Have a great week everyone.