Trading Signals and Trade Ideas From FCA Regulated Experts

Muted Monday?

Posted: 1st August 2022

Good morning and welcome to episode 658 of ‘Talking Bull’. In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead. 

We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.

We hope you enjoy it!

For a selection of free educational content, join our Discord server at – https://discord.gg/Db4UWVFvF6

Show notes:

Joe was offside 0.22R on NASDAQ. Steve was onside 0.04R on Bitcoin. Jamie was on side 0.52R on EURUSD.

We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.

We are currently up 130.99% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.


Fresh record high for Euro-Zone inflation

The headline Euro-Zone consumer prices inflation rate increased to a fresh record high of 8.9% for July from 8.6% previously and above consensus forecasts of 8.7%. The underlying rate increased to 4.0% from 3.7% and slightly above expectations of 3.9%.

GDP data was stronger than expected with a flash growth estimate of 0.7% for the second quarter after an upwardly-revised 0.6% increase for the previous quarter.

US PCE prices data stronger than expected

The US PCE prices index increased 1.0% for June with an annual rate of 6.8% from 6.3% previously. The core rate increased 0.6% on the month with the year-on-year rate of 4.8% slightly above the previous figure and market expectations of 4.7%.

The higher than expected reading triggered renewed concerns over inflation trends and reversed the sentiment that had been building after the Fed policy decision and weaker than expected GDP data.

US yields fail to hold gains

Treasuries briefly dipped after the US PCE prices data, but there was solid buying on dips and US yields moved lower again with the 10-year yield trading around 3-month lows at 2.67% in early Europe on Monday.

Sharp dollar retreat from  intra-day highs

The dollar posted net gains after the PCE data, but also failed to hold gains with lower yields and month-end selling pulling the US currency lower.

The dollar overall dipped to 3-week lows as USD/JPY slumped to 6-week lows.

Subdued Chinese PMI data

China’s PMI manufacturing index dipped to 49.0 for July from 50.2 previously and below consensus forecasts of 50.4. The non-manufacturing index also retreated to 53.8 from 54.7 and in line with expectations while the Caixin manufacturing index was also weaker than expected. The data maintained some reservations surrounding the Chinese outlook.

Strong UK consumer credit growth

UK mortgage approvals declined to 63,700 for June from a revised 65,700 previously and slightly below consensus forecasts with the lowest reading since June 2020. There was, however, a stronger than expected increase in consumer credit with the strongest increase since May 2019.

There were some fears that higher borrowing reflected difficulties in meeting commitments.

Data Today

15.00: US ISM index manufacturing

05.30 (Tues): Australia Reserve Bank policy decision

Key events over the next week

August 4th: Bank of England policy decision

August 5th: US employment report

August 5th: Canada employment report

Gun to head challenge – Update


Today’s trade idea





Have a great week everyone.

Get award-winning FCA regulated signals and levels on over 30 markets, as well as education resources so you never trade alone.