Good morning and welcome to episode 679 of ‘Talking Bull’. In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead.
We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.
We hope you enjoy it!
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Steve made 2R on Oil! Jamie and Joe were stopped out on Ethereum and DAX.
We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.
We are currently up 160.32% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.
US ISM inflation pressures ease
The US ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 52.8 for August and above consensus forecasts of 52.0.
The orders component moved back into expansion territory for the month, although production growth slowed to a crawl while inventories posted a smaller decline.
Employment also moved back into expansion for the month with a significant net gain.
There was a sharp slowdown in the prices index to 52.5 from 60.0 which was well below expectations and the lowest reading since July 2020.
US yields continue to increase
US Treasuries continued to lose ground ahead of Thursday’s New York open and there was no relief after the US open with the 10-year yield increasing to 2-month highs around 3.28% before a slight correction.
USD/JPY posts fresh 24-year high
The dollar posted further net gains against the yen on Thursday as overall yield spreads boosted the US currency.
Japanese verbal intervention had no impact as yield spreads dominated and USD/JPY posted a fresh 24-year high at 140.40 in Asia on Friday.
Swiss Inflation edges higher
Swiss consumer prices increased 0.3% for August with the year-on-year inflation rate edging higher to 3.5% from 3.4%.
The National Bank will remain uneasy over underlying inflation pressures.
US jobs report on Friday
The latest US employment report is due on Friday. Consensus forecasts are for an increase in non-farm payrolls of just under 300,000 after a 528,000 increase for July with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.5%.
Average hourly earnings will be important for inflation expectations and are forecast to increase 0.4% on the month with a 5.3% annual increase.
13.30: US employment report
Key events over the next week
September 5th: US Labor Day holiday
September 6th: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision
September 7th: Bank of Canada policy decision
September 8th: ECB policy decision
September 9th: Canada employment report
Gun to head challenge – Update
Today’s trade idea
Have a great week everyone.