Good morning and welcome to episode 38 of ‘Talking Bull’.
In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead. We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.
We hope you enjoy it!
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Joe made 1.44R on DAX yesterday with the index sinking further overnight. Steve secured 1.3R on Oil, which spiked aggessivley overnight on Iranian relatiation. Ian was stopped on his EURNZD trade ending a 5 trade winning streak. Joe has retaken the overall lead following yesterdays ideas.
We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.
We are currently up 39.1% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.
After relative calm during Tuesday, market fears spiked again after the New York close as Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on US airbases in Iraq.
Defensive assets drew fresh support, although a measured initial US reaction helped calm fears and risk assets pared losses in choppy trading with USD/JPY back above 108.00.
Oil prices spiked to fresh 8-month highs with WTI above $65.0 p/b before correcting lower amid hopes that regional supply disruptions would still be avoided.
Precious metals also spiked higher with gold posting fresh 6-year highs above $1,600 per ounce before a correction.
The Euro-zone CPI inflation rate increased to 1.3% for December from 1.0% previously which was in line with consensus forecasts.
The overall US trade deficit declined to a 3-year low of $43.1bn for November from $46.9bn the previous month as exports made headway. The deficit for the first 11 months of the year declined slightly to $563bn from $566.9bn the previous year.
The ISM non-manufacturing index strengthened to 55.0 for December from 53.9 previously and above consensus forecasts. There was a sharp rebound in business activity, although new orders increased at a slower rate and unfilled orders continued to decline for the month.
The Brexit Withdrawal Bill returned to the House of Commons with the committee stage due to be discussed until Thursday Amendments have no real chance of approval given the government’s large majority, limiting the potential impact.
There will be choppy trading on Middle East developments and Brexit developments will also be significant with Prime Minister Johnson meeting EU Commission President von der Leyen on Wednesday as EUR/GBP traded just below 0.8500 with GBP/USD around 1.3130.
Data – Day ahead
10am – eurozone business confidence (December): index to rise to -0.1 from -0.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (December): forecast to rise to 151K from 67K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 3 January). Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Gun to head trade ideas – Results so far
Gun to head trade ideas – Today
Have a great week everyone.