Good morning and welcome to episode 93 of ‘Talking Bull’.
In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead. We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.
We hope you enjoy it!
Join us on Telegram for more content – https://t.me/signalcentre
Joe had a big win on DAX yesterday of 7.16R while Steve made 1.53R on Silver and Ian made 1.87R on EURGBP. This put our overall P&L close to all time highs.
We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.
We are currently up 68.45% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.
Risk appetite strengthened on Tuesday amid hopes that Congress would approve a fiscal stimulus package and reports after the US close suggested a deal had been reached.
In Asia on Wednesday, there were reports that Administration and Senate Democrats had reached agreement on a $2.0trn package, but there will still need to be votes in Congress and President Trump’s signature.
There were also reports that the US Administration would defer trade tariffs for a 90-day period and Asian markets made strong gains.
PMI data indicated sharp downturns in the Euro-zone, UK and US, especially in services.
US equity markets posted strong gains despite PMI data with the S&P 500 index gaining over 9% and all major global bourses made solid gains.
The US currency recovered from intra-day lows, but overall dollar demand remained lower as liquidity efforts increased dollar supply with EUR/USD above 1.0800.
ECB President Lagarde was reported as saying that she supported coronabonds, but EU finance ministers struggled to find common ground.
After posting strong gains ahead of the New York open, US equity markets opened higher and made further strong gains into the European close. Confirmation that the Olympics due to be held in Japan this year would be postponed until next year had a negative impact on the Japanese currency. Money markets also indicated that dollar demand from Japanese banks was still very high. Yen demand remained weak and USD/JPY pushed to highs near 111.50.
G7 members held a virtual meeting and reiterated that they will do whatever is necessary to restore confidence with little net impact.
Commodity currencies made significant net gains as risk appetite improved.
Stronger risk appetite also helped underpin Sterling after recent heavy losses.
There was some speculation that the Bank of England would announce more aggressive quantitative easing measures at Thursday’s policy meeting which provided an element of Sterling support.
Oil prices also made net gains as equity markets posted net gains.
Precious metals continued to make further strong gains on underlying demand with a further surge in gold futures, although spot prices lagged notably.
Data – Day ahead
9am – German IFO business climate index (March, final): forecast to fall to 88 from 96. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am – UK CPI (February): CPI to rise 1.5%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
12.30pm – US durable goods orders (February): expected to fall 0.9% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 20 March). Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Gun to head trade ideas – Update
Today’s trade ideas
Have a great week everyone.