Trading Signals and Trade Ideas From FCA Regulated Experts

What to expect ahead of the ECB Meeting

Posted: 21st July 2022

Good morning and welcome to episode 651 of ‘Talking Bull’. In this video/podcast we cover the main headlines and what to expect from the day ahead. 

We take a technical look at key markets that are likely to be impacted by today’s events. Also, we participate in a ‘Gun to the head’ challenge where each of us calls a live trade. These will expire at 9pm tonight and we will keep track of the progress over time.

We hope you enjoy it!

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Show notes:

Joe made 1.08R on EU50.

We have included an illustration based on a £1000 account. This will follow the combined return of our morning trades by risking 1% of the trading capital per trade. The 1% risk is a variable monetary amount and will rise and fall based on the success of the calls.

We are currently up 122.04% collectively since we began recording Talking Bull on the 30th October 2019.


US home sales slide

US existing home sales declined to an annual rate of 5.12mn for June from 5.41mn previously which was below consensus forecasts of 5.38mn and the lowest reading since July 2020. The data maintained concerns over the housing sector.

Euro consumer confidence dips again

Euro-Zone consumer confidence dipped again to -27 for July from -23.8 previously and weaker than consensus forecasts of -24.9.

Big day for Europe

The ECB will announce its policy decision on Thursday with uncertainty over the scale of a rate hike. The bank is also scheduled to announce its new tool to contain peripheral bond yields.

There will be volatile Euro trading after the decision, especially with Italian political uncertainty also a key element.

PM Draghi expected to resign

Italian political developments will also be important. In comments on Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Draghi stated that he would only stay in office if there was unity in coalition partners.

There are, however, major splits in the parties and Draghi is expected to resign on Thursday.

Mixed Canadian inflation data

The headline Canadian inflation rate increased to a fresh 29-year high of 8.1% from 7.7% previously, although this was below market expectations of 8.4%.

The underlying rate increased to 6.2% from 5.9% and was slightly above consensus forecasts of 6.1%. The overall Bank of Canada core readings also moved higher on the month.

Bank of Japan on hold

The Bank of Japan made no changes following the latest policy meeting with interest rates at -0.1% and a 0% target for the 10-year yield.

Reaction was measured as there had been no expectations of a change at this meeting.

Data Today

13.15: ECB monetary policy decision

13.30: US jobless claims

13.30: US Philly Fed index

13.45: ECB press conference

Key events over the next week

July 22nd: European and US PMI data

July 27th: Australia consumer prices

July 27th: Federal Reserve policy decision

Gun to head challenge – Update


Today’s trade idea





Have a great week everyone.

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